Spoiler: Consumer reacts (but not enough) and the sector remains in a commercial clamp.
As Reuters reported last week, value-driven brands such as McDonald’s, Domino’s or Chili’s are capturing traffic in the US from fast-casual players like Chipotle, Cava or Sweetgreen, which are now perceived as overpriced. The polarization of the US consumer is real and affordability wins.
Based on public Q3 results, same-store-sales are back in positive territory across QSR, both in the US and internationally. It is a significant change versus the first half of 2025, when most players struggled to keep SSS out of the red.
Industry data confirm that visit frequency declined across all restaurant segments in Q3 versus Q2, even among value players. Traffic remains weak, regardless of SSS recovery.
However, consumers are finally reacting to the full playbook of value platforms rolled out since mid-2024. In the US, examples include McDonald’s $5 Meal Deal, Wendy’s $3 Breakfast bundle, Burger King’s 2 for $5 Mix & Match. Similar initiatives have been replicated across international markets.
Yet when comparing Q3 SSS growth with inflation, the picture does not seem positive enough. Growth sits at or below food inflation levels (c. 3% US, 4.5% global) while traffic stayed weak. In other words, brands had to increase prices on a flat or declining traffic, to keep SSS positive.
In Spain, QSR brands have increased prices way above 5% YTD despite declining traffic. In the US, we estimate a decline in traffic around 2-3% in Q3 but still positive SSS. This implies a price increase that is relevant, but below inflation. As a potential side effect, price increases may have prevented traffic to bounce back, potential sign of limited pricing power (with obvious differences across brands).
Restaurants cost inflation remains higher than headline CPI, particularly in beef, coffee and dairy. Keeping pace with inflation is now a basic muscle for any brand, large or small.
The real question for 2026 will be when (and how) brands manage to escape this commercial clamp: rising input costs on one side, limited pricing power on the other.
*This article is my own, not ChatGPT’s. It was written with time, care, and data. The image was generated using AI.